Skoll Global Threats Fund

Few things hold the power to stop the global economy in its tracks. A pandemic is one of them. In addition to the high human costs of suffering, pandemics can stop travel and commerce and create political tension. With globalization and the ease of international travel, the potential for pandemics to spread quickly and widely is greater than ever before. H1N1, commonly referred to as the swine flu, has proven relatively mild in terms of severity, but has spread faster than any previously known influenza. Envision an influenza with high mortality, such as avian flu, spreading at this speed. The prospects are frightening.

Tackling pandemics effectively requires four things – good science, good business, international cooperation, and public awareness. The H1N1 pandemic provides a useful test run for how prepared we are and, while we didn’t fail the test, we were fortunate the virus has proven mild to date. While the virus was identified relatively quickly, a vaccine was slow in coming and governments were moderately effective in coordinating their responses. The media, while at times alarmist, generally did a good job in keeping people informed. But the H1N1 episode made it clear we need to put into place better processes to be able to move more quickly when the next pandemic strikes.

Water is required for life, livelihoods and prosperity. Its variability, both in the absence and presence of water, already poses a substantial threat to 40 percent of the global population. The absence of reliable water is killing millions of people per year, threatening food security, disrupting energy supply, restricting trade, creating refugees, and undermining authority. The presence of too much water is a cause of death, poverty, and devastation through floods and landslides.

Although water insecurity is perceived to be a long-term risk, the world suffers from its impacts regularly today as a result of poor water resource management. If business-as-usual water resource management continues, the global water demand and supply gap is projected to be 40 percent by 2030 given the projected population and economic growth. Climate variability will only exacerbate the problem even further. It is imperative that we address the global water challenge today to prepare for the growing risks in the future.

Deployed only twice in history, more than a half century ago, nuclear weapons retain the dubious distinction of being the fastest way ever devised to kill the most people. The threat of nuclear weapons has been compelling enough to drive a series of international agreements banning the development of nuclear capabilities. Only nine countries now are believed to currently have nuclear weapons capabilities. Yet nuclear weapons – because of the power they are perceived to convey – continue to attract political attention. Iran, with its push to develop fuel processing capabilities for what it claims are peaceful nuclear power purposes – raises alarms around the globe. The concern that nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of terrorists – for whom killing large numbers of people is generally a stated goal – adds a particularly urgent angle to the issue.

Since governments own the nuclear weapons, it will require government action and international cooperation to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. President Obama has set an ambitious goal of eliminating nuclear weapons, and is engaging with the other major weapons holder, Russia, on a plan to move forward. Politicians in all the nuclear countries – and aspiring nuclear countries – need the political cover to take difficult choices on nuclear weapons. Civil society initiatives which enlists both popular opinion and influential individuals worldwide in support of elimination of nuclear weapons are a step in this direction.

The Arab Awakening has raised hopes that a new era of positive change may be emerging in the Middle East. However, there also exists an unusually high risk of conflict and instability, as Syria is engulfed in civil war, the Iranian nuclear crisis reaches a point of reckoning, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict enters a new and uncertain phase, and the regional security order disintegrates. In the longer-term, chronic socioeconomic problems related to youth unemployment and food and water insecurity, exacerbated by climate change, will continue to challenge even the most stable regimes.

Addressing these threats will require action on multiple fronts, none more important than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which continues to stymie effective regional cooperation. In transitioning countries, initiatives are required to stabilize the political situation and address the drivers of socioeconomic crisis that could derail progress towards democratization. More broadly in the region, there is a need for building cross-border capacity to address a set of rapidly emerging common challenges, such as disease management and water, energy, and food security. Finally, it is imperative to track the fast-changing security environment and establish new patterns of diplomatic engagement that help to reinforce, rather than undermine, the above goals.